Express Entry Draws 2025 vs. 2026: What the Numbers Tell Us and What to Expect Next

Canada's Express Entry system remains the primary pathway to permanent residence for skilled workers, but 2026 is shaping up to look very different from 2025. With reduced immigration targets, the disappearance of general draws, and a strategic shift toward category-based selection, candidates need to understand how the landscape has changed — and what it means for their chances.

At JSR Immigration Ltd., we have been closely tracking every Express Entry draw to help our clients plan their immigration strategy. Here is our analysis of the key trends and what we predict for the rest of 2026.

2025 in Review: A Record-Setting Year

By the numbers, 2025 was one of the busiest years in Express Entry history. IRCC issued a total of 113,998 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) across 58 draws — roughly 15,000 more ITAs than in 2024.

However, the composition of those draws tells a more nuanced story:

• No general draws at all. The last general "No Program Specified" round — where all Express Entry candidates compete solely on CRS scores — was held on April 23, 2024. In 2025, IRCC moved entirely to targeted draws.

• Category-based selection dominated. Approximately 59% of all ITAs were issued through category-based draws. French language proficiency alone accounted for roughly 42,000 invitations, followed by Canadian Experience Class (CEC) at 30,850 and Healthcare occupations at 14,500.

• CEC draws ran tight. IRCC held 15 CEC-specific draws in 2025 with CRS cut-offs ranging from 515 to 547 and averaging around 529. These draws consistently targeted candidates already working in Canada.

• PNP remained steady. Provincial Nominee Program draws continued at regular intervals throughout the year with CRS cut-offs around 739–780 (reflecting the 600-point PNP nomination boost).

2026 So Far: Fewer ITAs, More Precision

The first quarter of 2026 has confirmed a clear shift. While Express Entry activity remains frequent, the volumes and strategy have changed meaningfully.

Draw Volume and Categories (January–April 2026)

From January through early April 2026, IRCC has held approximately 19 draws and issued over 53,000 ITAs in the first 12 weeks alone. The breakdown reveals IRCC's priorities:

• CEC draws have continued but with smaller invitation rounds. CRS cut-offs have hovered between 507 and 511, slightly lower than the 2025 average of 529. The March 17 draw issued 4,000 CEC invitations, but by March 31, that number dropped to just 2,250.

• French language proficiency draws remain a major category, with cut-offs sitting in the mid-to-high 390s — significantly lower than other draw types.

• New targeted categories have emerged. IRCC held its first-ever dedicated draw for Senior Managers (NOC 00012–00015) on March 5, 2026, with a CRS cut-off of 429. A Physicians with Canadian Work Experience draw on February 19 invited 391 candidates at a remarkably low CRS of just 169.

• Trade occupations saw a major expansion. The April 2, 2026 Trades draw issued 3,000 ITAs at a CRS cut-off of 477, compared to just 1,250 ITAs at a CRS of 505 in the previous trades round in late 2025.

• PNP draws continue at regular bi-weekly intervals.

The Bigger Picture: Canada's 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan

The shift in Express Entry activity reflects a broader change in Canadian immigration policy. Under the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan:

• Permanent resident targets are set at approximately 380,000 per year through 2028.

• Federal High Skilled allocations (which include Express Entry) are set at 109,000 spaces for 2026 — a decrease from the combined 124,680 spaces allocated in 2025.

• Temporary resident arrivals are being cut dramatically, from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026 — a 43% reduction.

• PNP allocations are increasing significantly, from 55,000 in 2025 to 91,500 in 2026.

The government has also announced a one-time measure to accelerate the transition of up to 33,000 work permit holders to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027.

Key Differences at a Glance: 2025 vs. 2026

Factor 2025 2026 (to date / projected)

Total ITAs issued 113,998 (58 draws) 53,000+ in Q1 (19 draws)

General draws Zero Zero (unlikely to return)

CEC draw CRS range 515–547 (avg. ~529) 507–511 (trending lower)

CEC draw frequency 15 draws (full year) ~6 draws (Q1 alone)

French language CRS 379–446 393–400

Trade occupations 1,250 ITAs / 505 CRS 3,000 ITAs / 477 CRS

Federal High Skilled allocation ~124,680 ~109,000

New targeted categories Limited Physicians, Senior Managers, expanded Trades

What This Means for Express Entry Candidates

• The general draw is effectively gone. If you are waiting for a general "all-program" draw to be invited, you may be waiting indefinitely. IRCC has not held one since April 2024, and there is no indication one is planned for 2026.

• CEC candidates still have a strong pathway, but rounds are shrinking. While CRS cut-offs for CEC draws have dropped slightly, the number of invitations per round is also decreasing. This suggests IRCC is managing its inventory more carefully under the reduced targets.

• Category-based selection is the new reality. Candidates who fall into a targeted category — French speakers, healthcare professionals, tradespeople, STEM workers — have a significant advantage. CRS cut-offs for these draws are often substantially lower than for CEC or PNP rounds.

• Provincial nominations are more valuable than ever. With PNP allocations jumping from 55,000 to 91,500, candidates who can secure a provincial nomination dramatically increase their odds of receiving an ITA.

Our Predictions for the Rest of 2026

Based on the data and the immigration levels plan, here is what we expect:

• CEC draws will continue but remain small and tactical. Expect 2,000–4,000 ITAs per round with CRS cut-offs in the 505–515 range. IRCC will use these draws to manage the in-Canada applicant pool without exceeding its targets.

• More new category-based draws will emerge. IRCC has already introduced Senior Managers and Physicians as standalone categories. We anticipate additional categories targeting high-demand occupations later in 2026.

• French language draws will remain the lowest-barrier entry point. Candidates with strong French proficiency (CLB 7+) will continue to benefit from CRS cut-offs well below 400.

• No general draw is expected. The strategic shift toward targeted draws appears permanent. Candidates without a provincial nomination, Canadian work experience, or a qualifying occupation category will face limited options through Express Entry alone.

• PNP-linked draws will grow in importance. With the nearly doubled PNP allocation, expect more frequent PNP draws and greater competition for provincial nominations.

What You Should Do Now

If you are in the Express Entry pool or planning to enter it, the 2026 landscape rewards preparation and strategy. Here are the steps we recommend:

• Get your CRS score as high as possible. Every point matters in a more competitive environment. Consider improving your language scores, obtaining a Canadian educational credential assessment, or gaining additional skilled work experience.

• Explore provincial nominee programs. With 91,500 PNP spaces in 2026, a provincial nomination adds 600 CRS points and virtually guarantees an invitation. Research which provincial streams align with your profile.

• Assess whether you qualify for a targeted category. If you work in healthcare, trades, STEM, transport, or agriculture — or if you have French language proficiency — you may be eligible for draws with significantly lower CRS requirements.

• Act on Canadian work experience. CEC draws remain a core pathway. If you are in Canada on a work permit, ensure your work experience meets the requirements for the Canadian Experience Class.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will there be a general Express Entry draw in 2026?

It is unlikely. IRCC has not held a general draw since April 2024 and has shifted entirely to category-based and program-specific draws. If a general draw does occur, the CRS cut-off would likely be extremely high.

Why are CEC draw sizes shrinking in 2026?

Canada's 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan allocates fewer spaces to the Federal High Skilled category (109,000 versus ~124,680 in 2025). IRCC is managing its invitation volumes more carefully to stay within these reduced targets.

What CRS score do I need for a CEC draw in 2026?

CEC cut-offs in 2026 have ranged from 507 to 511. Based on current trends, a CRS score of 510 or above gives you a reasonable chance of receiving an invitation, though this can fluctuate.

How can I improve my chances of getting an ITA in 2026?

Focus on category-based advantages (French language, healthcare, trades), explore provincial nominee programs, and ensure your CRS score is optimized through language testing, education, and Canadian work experience.

Is Canada reducing immigration in 2026?

Canada is moderating its immigration intake, particularly for temporary residents (a 43% reduction). Permanent resident targets remain at approximately 380,000 per year, but the allocation within Express Entry has been reduced, making the system more competitive.

Need help with your Express Entry strategy? The immigration landscape is shifting, and a well-planned approach can make the difference between receiving an ITA and waiting indefinitely. Contact JSR Immigration Ltd. for a consultation — we will assess your profile, identify your strongest pathway, and help you put your best application forward.

JSR Immigration Ltd. | RCIC #R712841 Email: info@jsrimmigration.com

This article provides general information and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration laws and policies are subject to change. For advice specific to your situation, contact JSR Immigration Ltd.

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